“Exponential growth of information technology”

Highlights

• Progression today its not linear, its exponential.
• Target your projects for the world that will exist when you finish them.

• To be successful is not to make your project work, it is to be correct on the timing.
• The exponential growth is predictable and very explosive.
• We constantly try to predict whats coming

Predictability is completely unaffected by booms, problems and other successes.

Health & Medicine

• Health and medicine have become an information technology.
• We could identify the gens responsible for diseases and modify them to turn them off.
• Health and medicine will be a million times more powerful in 20 years.
• Human brain is being completely reverse engineered.
• Life expectancy will grow faster than you get old

Technology

• What now fits in a cellphone will fit in a blood cell in 25 years.
• Within 20 years we could completely replace fosil fuels with solar energy.
• Change is going faster and faster.
• Try to project where technology will be.
• Technology is an evolutionary process.
• Technology has accelerated itself.
• Biology is very subobtimal to what we actually engineer.

Information Technologies

• Information technologies follow remarkably predictable patterns.
• Information technology its a democratizing technology.
• Information technology has a fifty percent deflation rate.

Other highlights

• Exponential growth can not go on forever: it comes to an end.
• When prices reach a certain level, technologies explode.
• “Identify new applications and try to identify when they will be possible”.
• Very few people could do their jobs without innovations that exist today.
• Prediction for 2010: computers disappear.
• Prediction for 2029: an intimate merger 1000 times old computation equal 1000 times of human brain.

Extract by Josep Oriol Ayats and Guillem Mateos.