Our next 50 years: Science, technology and the mother of invention, by R. Kurzweil

Jun 17 2009

“Exponential growth of information technology”

Highlights

  • Progression today its not linear, its exponential.
  • Target your projects for the world that will exist when you finish them.
  • To be successful is not to make your project work, it is to be correct on the timing.
  • The exponential growth is predictable and very explosive.
  • We constantly try to predict whats coming

Predictability is completely unaffected by booms, problems and other successes.

Health & Medicine

  • Health and medicine have become an information technology.
  • We could identify the gens responsible for diseases and modify them to turn them off.
  • Health and medicine will be a million times more powerful in 20 years.
  • Human brain is being completely reverse engineered.
  • Life expectancy will grow faster than you get old

Technology

  • What now fits in a cellphone will fit in a blood cell in 25 years.
  • Within 20 years we could completely replace fosil fuels with solar energy.
  • Change is going faster and faster.
  • Try to project where technology will be.
  • Technology is an evolutionary process.
  • Technology has accelerated itself.
  • Biology is very subobtimal to what we actually engineer.

Information Technologies

  • Information technologies follow remarkably predictable patterns.
  • Information technology its a democratizing technology.
  • Information technology has a fifty percent deflation rate.

Other highlights

  • Exponential growth can not go on forever: it comes to an end.
  • When prices reach a certain level, technologies explode.
  • “Identify new applications and try to identify when they will be possible”.
  • Very few people could do their jobs without innovations that exist today.
  • Prediction for 2010: computers disappear.
  • Prediction for 2029: an intimate merger 1000 times old computation equal 1000 times of human brain.

Extract by Josep Oriol Ayats and Guillem Mateos.


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